Delivery probability terrain
Oakland streets · 3 textured, independent 9–5 areas
Prior distribution
9 AM1 PM5 PM
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No local observations. Broad uncertainty varies across the neighborhood.
Earlier · 9 AM5 PM · Later
Height + color = delivery time
Smooth within areas · cliffs at boundaries
Surface = median · thickness = central 80% range
Observed delivery
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Median forecast—
Central 80% window—